# GLD vs IBIT — $1,000 Entry-Date Analysis (from uploaded CSV only)

Data: `gold-vs-bitcoin-funds-2026-price-checkpoints.csv` — 5 rows, closes only
(2026-01-02, 01-30, 02-27, 03-31, 09-23). No prices between rows are assumed.

## Raw data

| date | GLD close | IBIT close |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-02 | 398.28 | 50.94 |
| 2026-01-30 | 444.95 | 47.49 |
| 2026-02-27 | 483.75 | 37.19 |
| 2026-03-31 | 430.29 | 38.42 |
| 2026-09-23 | 392.88 | 47.88 |

## Method

For each buy date and fund: shares = 1000 / close(buy date); value at any later
checkpoint = shares × close(checkpoint). Only CSV dates are used.

## Jan 2 buys, held (value at each checkpoint)

| date | GLD | IBIT | gap (GLD − IBIT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01-02 | 1,000.00 | 1,000.00 | 0 |
| 01-30 | 1,117.18 | 932.27 | +184.91 |
| 02-27 | 1,214.60 | 730.07 | +484.52 |
| 03-31 | 1,080.37 | 754.22 | +326.15 |
| 09-23 | 986.44 | 939.93 | +46.51 |

Combined on Sep 23: $1,926.37 of $2,000.

## Start-date sweep (bought date X, held to Sep 23)

| start | GLD ends | IBIT ends | winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-02 | 986.44 | 939.93 | GLD |
| 2026-01-30 | 882.98 | 1,008.21 | IBIT |
| 2026-02-27 | 812.16 | 1,287.44 | IBIT |
| 2026-03-31 | 913.06 | 1,246.23 | IBIT |

## Takeaway

Entry date flipped the winner: GLD only "wins" (barely) when bought Jan 2;
from January 30 onward IBIT wins, most from the Feb 27 low. GLD bought near
its late-Feb peak loses ~8–19% by Sep 23. Four start dates × one end date on
one pair of funds — a small sample, not a trading rule.

Charts: `jan2-holdings.png`, `start-date-comparison.png`.
